 -09/05/06 - Corpus Christi -- There's been good reason to rejoice so far this year along the Texas coast thanks to a slow start to the 2006 hurricane season. Only five named Atlantic storms have formed so far, giving hope to coastal residents that the approaching peak season will come and go without a significant hurricane landfall.
But experts -- and history -- warn that when it comes to late forming tropical storms, it's not over till it's over. In fact, a quick look back at history indicates just the opposite. It seems like most of Texas' worst and highly devastating storms didn't form until more than half way through the season. And worse yet, many of the storms were fast developing systems that often left little time to warn coastal residents.
The fact is that since 1885, almost one-half of the hurricanes that have hit Texas formed in the Gulf of Mexico and in many instances became major hurricanes within only a 24-hour period, says John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas State Climatologist and professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University.
The lesson to be learned, he says, is this: Weather technology is vastly improved from what it was 100-or even 25-years ago, but we still need to plan for the storms we won't see coming until the last minute.
 "We're used to seeing hurricanes being tracked for a week to 10 days as they form far out in the Atlantic and then watch them get closer to Texas," Nielsen-Gammon says. "But many times, it just doesn't happen that way. Along the Texas coast north of the Coastal Bend, five of the 12 major hurricanes in the past 120 years formed right in the Gulf of Mexico. Most of those storms were not even hurricanes two days before landfall.
One good example: Hurricane Audrey in 1957. That storm formed quickly in the central Gulf and was not a major hurricane until only 12 hours before it made landfall, and by then it was a Category 4 storm. It did extensive damage along the upper Texas and Louisiana coast, killing almost 500 people.
Hurricane Ethel in 1960 formed in the Gulf as a disturbance and within less than a day, it was packing 155-mile per hour winds before weakening as it approached Mississippi.
Nielsen-Gammon says that Hurricane Carla is still the most powerful storm to hit Texas. Although it formed in the Atlantic, it did not become a major hurricane until it reached the warm waters of the Gulf and when it made landfall Sept. 9-10 in 1961, winds were clocked at 170 miles per hour at Port Lavaca, with some areas receiving 16 inches of rain. It killed 43 people, 31 of those in Texas.
Last summer, Hurricane Rita also formed in the Atlantic, but it was not until it reached the central Gulf that it intensified dramatically. At one point, it was a Category 5 hurricane with winds over 150 miles per hour, but it was designated a Category 3 when it made landfall with winds at about 125 miles per hour.
As far as late season hurricanes go, Texas has had their share. Look at the chart below and you quickly realize that many major storms of the past didn't hit the coast until later in the hurricane season:
 September 5-7th, 1955 (Gladys): Gladys struck 140 miles south of Brownsville as a category 1 hurricane on the 5th. The rainfall total at Flour Bluff was 17.02". Corpus Christi saw 7.6" of rain in 24 hours. Tides rose to 4.5'. A circulation center rotating around the eastern periphery of the storm moved onshore on the 7th south of Baffin Bay. Locals to the area named it "Glasscock", after the oil platform 15 miles east of Port Aransas that recorded winds of 83 mph. Winds of 60 mph were seen at Flour Bluff. Damage was confined to the coast.
September 14th, 1961 (Carla): No list of Texas hurricanes would be complete without the mention of Carla, which made landfall near Port Lavaca. Carla was among the largest hurricanes of historical record (number 2 behind the Great New England Hurricane of 1938). The storm produced many tornadoes, gusts estimated to 175 m.p.h., torrential rains, and a 22 foot storm surge at Port O'Connor. Hurricane force gusts were seen along almost the entire Texas Coast. Winds gusted to 86 mph at Corpus Christi. Her path of devastation inland extended from Victoria to Dallas. The death toll of only 34 in Texas can be attributed in part to what was the largest peace time evacuation of an area in history. A quarter million people fled the middle and upper Texas coasts to move inland to safety.
September 17th, 1963 (Cindy): Hurricane Cindy formed over the northwest Gulf on the 16th along a trough of low pressure. It intensified rapidly, becoming a hurricane by mid-afternoon. It crossed the coast near High Island on the 17th. Winds were estimated at 75 m.p.h. at Sabine Pass. Lowest pressure observed was 29.45" at High Island. Only slight tidal effects were noted. Torrential rains ensued after landfall as the center drifted slowly westward, causing flooding of area rivers and streams. Deweyville reported 22.78" of rain while Orange reported 20.80". Port Arthur received 14.38" of rain on the 17th and 18th, setting new daily rainfall records The flood waters claimed 2 lives, twin 18 month old sisters, on the 22nd. One man drowned when he was evacuating an oil rig south of Cameron. A 4.6 ft. storm surge was measured at the Galveston Ship Channel. Damage was estimated near $13 million.
September 20th, 1967 (Beulah): Hurricane Beulah was the third largest hurricane on record, after Carla in 1961 (see above for details on Carla) and the Great New England Hurricane of 1938. The storm traversed the Caribbean Sea from the 8th through mid month. It struck the coast near Brownsville on the 20th, then recurved, paralleling the coastline to the southwest thereafter.
September 9-13th, 1971 (Fern): Hurricanes Fern and Edith, in that order, affected the coast from September 7th through the 16th. Fern paralleled the Texas coast while a hurricane and made landfall as a tropical storm on the 11th. Rainfall amounts between 15 and 26 inches deluged Bee, Refugio, and San Patricio counties. Major flooding occurred along portions of the Frio, Lavaca, Navidad, San Antonio, Guadeloupe, Mission, and Aransas Rivers. This caused the worst flooding in area since Beulah. Waters went crashing over the Wesley Seale Dam at Lake Corpus Christi, causing major flooding. A levee broke at Robstown, flooding 40 blocks of the southwest side of town. Railroad tracks were washed out between Falflurrias and Alice due to the flooding rains.
September 14-17th, 1971 (Edith): Edith made landfall as a category 2 hurricane on the 16th. A six foot storm surge overran Highway 87 between Sabine Pass and High Island. Galveston saw the highest wind gust - 53 mph. Port Arthur saw a gust to 47 mph. A hailstorm early on the 16th across Southern Swisher and Northern Hale counties covered the ground 2 to 3 inches deep and incurred $7.4 million in damage to crops.
September 10-14th, 1998 (Frances): On the 7th, an area of disturbed weather formed in the Central Gulf of Mexico. It was complex with a broad area of low pressure, induced by a nearby upper low to the west of the circulation. Strong easterly winds had barely relaxed after Charley, which had just made landfall in Texas, before redeveloping. Air Force aircraft investigated the system on the 8th, and a tropical depression was found 220 miles southeast of Corpus Christi. It moved very little over the next 24 hours, slowly strengthening into a tropical storm by the 9th.
October 16th, 1912: Winds of 55 mph howled through Brownsville as a hurricane made landfall between there and Corpus Christi. Heavy rain was accompanied with the storm. The steamship Nicaragua was wrecked 80 miles down Padre Island. Two of the ship's boilers can still be seen there.
October 4th, 1950 (How): Hurricane How hit the Mexican coast 150 miles south of Brownsville. Damage was reported as far north as Port Aransas. Corpus Christi had gusts to 39 mph. Tides rose to 4' at Padre Island. Sections of highway on North Padre Island at Gulf Park were washed away.
The good news is that late season hurricanes to the Texas coast are generally far and few between. But emergency preparedness officials are warning the worse thing coastal residents could do would is to underestimate the potential for September or even October storms. With warm water conditions in the Gulf and unstable upper level atmospheric conditions often experienced during late summer and early fall, a "surprise" storm could develop.
The same rules apply to late season as early season: Keep the gas tank full, the emergency plan up to date, and don't take the shutters off the windows until well into October if you want to remain safe from unexpected storm development.
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